With the significant expansion of the “coal to electricity” policy, the market size of the domestic heat pump industry significantly expanded from 2016 to 2017. In 2018, with the policy stimulus slowing down, the market growth rate significantly declined. In 2020, sales declined due to the impact of the epidemic. In 2021, with the introduction of the “carbon peak” related action plan and the implementation of the “14th Five Year Plan” energy sources in various regions in 2022, the market size rebounded to reach 21.106 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, Among them, the market scale of air source heat pump is 19.39 billion yuan, that of water ground source heat pump is 1.29 billion yuan, and that of other heat pumps is 426 million yuan.
Meanwhile, in recent years, China’s heat pump policy support and subsidy amounts have continued to increase. For example, in 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission and others issued the “Implementation Plan for Deepening the Green and Low Carbon Leading Action of Public Institutions to Promote Carbon Peak”, achieving a new heat pump heating (cooling) area of 10 million square meters by 2025; The budget of the Ministry of Finance shows that 30 billion yuan will be allocated for air pollution prevention and control in 2022, an increase of 2.5 billion yuan compared to last year, further increasing subsidies for clean heating in the northern region. In the future, with the accelerated implementation of carbon reduction requirements for domestic buildings and the gradual weakening of coal to electricity conversion, China’s heat pump industry will encounter new development opportunities, and the market size is expected to continue to rise, with growth potential.
Throughout the world, heat pump heating products are still in short supply. Especially in the context of the European energy crisis in 2022, they actively seek alternative heating solutions in winter. With the “tuyere” of heat pump stations, demand is rising rapidly, and domestic enterprises begin to accelerate the layout or expand heat pump capacity and enjoy more “dividends” of growth.
Specifically, in recent years, although Europe has actively promoted the construction and development of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydropower, due to technological progress and cost constraints, the overall energy consumption structure in Europe at this stage is still dominated by traditional energy. According to BP data, in the energy consumption structure of the European Union in 2021, crude oil, natural gas, and coal accounted for 33.5%, 25.0%, and 12.2% respectively, while renewable energy accounted for only 19.7%. Moreover, Europe has a high dependence on traditional energy sources for external use. Taking winter heating as an example, the proportion of households using natural gas for heating in the UK, Germany, and France is as high as 85%, 50%, and 29%, respectively. This also leads to a weak ability of European energy to resist risks.
The sales and penetration rate of heat pumps in Europe increased rapidly from 2006 to 2020. According to data, in 2021, the highest sales in Europe were 53.7w in France, 38.2w in Italy, and 17.7w in Germany. Overall, the sales of heat pumps in Europe exceeded 200w, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 25%. Additionally, the potential annual sales reached 680w, indicating broad growth potential.
China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of heat pumps, accounting for 59.4% of global production capacity, and is also the largest exporter of heat pumps in the global export market. Therefore, benefiting from the significant increase in exports of heating heat pumps, as of the first half of 2022, the export quantity of China’s heat pump industry was 754339 units, with an export amount of 564198730 US dollars. The main export destinations were Italy, Australia, Spain, and other countries. As of January August 2022, Italy’s export sales growth rate reached 181%. It can be seen that China’s overseas market is in the ascendant.
Post time: May-20-2023